Hello, Yankee fans. Thanks for visiting the site and for reading my first entry on this blog. Maybe if I’m lucky, you’ll even come back! Let me first tell you that this will not be the home of some “fan-boy” rants that gloss over any faults of the Yankees or make wild, baseless suggestions (yeah, how ’bout the Yankees trade Cody Ransom for David Wright! Spare me.) What you will be getting from me is insightful analysis–and a little humor–from someone who is a student of the game and a number-cruncher like no other. You will come away from this site with the feeling that you are a more-savvy Yankees fan than you were before.

With that said, let’s get going!

Right now, the biggest question in the Yankees’ realm is this: what can be expected from Alex Rodriguez when he returns in mid-May from hip surgery? Will he be able to come back, full force right away; will he need a little bit of time to find himself at the plate; or will the added pressure of returning from his first major injury coupled with his steroid-usage admission prove to be too much to overcome?

It’s hard to comment on Rodriguez’s mental coping ability given that 1) I don’t know him, and 2) I’m not that much of a mind-reader/psychic. But what I can comment on is the level of difficulty he faces in recovering from this injury and surgery. Twice, I went under the knife to repair a torn labrum in my shoulder, so I am familiar with the whole rehabilitation process. Hell, as of right now, I’ve got an ice pack wrapped around my shoulder following lifting today. It’s quite the pleasant experience, if you’re into feeling the sensation of sharp objects get repeatedly jabbed into you.

Anyway, enough about my travails. A torn hip labrum differs from a torn shoulder labrum in two ways: 1) the hip is a weight-bearing joint, and 2) look at the picture to the right. Not only is that right hip holding up half of Rodriguez’s upper body, but it is also responsible for powering an explosive rotation of his body for his swing.

That has to be an very painful thing to do repetitively, especially for someone as strong and powerful as Rodriguez. Let’s say Rodriguez makes 250 swings per day, if you include batting practice, tee drills, on-deck swings and actual hacks at the plate. That’s 250 times that the hip violently rotates while bearing the weight of his upper body. Not only that, the right hip is also the one used as he accelerates out of the box when he makes contact. Taking these factors into consideration, any option not involving surgery is an unrealistic one.

Now here comes the real kicker: Rodriguez will need more surgery after the season to finish the job. So even after he returns to the diamond, Rodriguez won’t be 100 percent healthy for the entire 2009 season.

The bottom line is this: temper your expectations of Rodriguez’ contributions for 2009. Well before the injury and steroid usage came to light, the staff at Baseball Prospectus projected Rodriguez’s stats to continue a downward trend. They postulated that he would bat .282/.373/.508 with 30 home runs, 29 doubles and just 98 RBIs. That meant Rodriguez would miss the century-mark in RBIs for the first time since 1997, his second full season in the bigs. Now, that prediction is a near-certainty.

With nine more years remaining on the richest contract in all of pro sports, the Yankees’ front office is praying that BP is off the mark on their projections and Dr. Marc Philippon hit his while digging away on the star third baseman.

- M.E.